The nuclear accident of Fukushima is registered and raised means Japan's economy is exceeded and is expected to worsen

The nuclear accident of Fukushima is registered and raised, means Japan's economy is exceeded and is expected to worsen
The nuclear accident of Fukushima is registered and raised, means Japan's economy is exceeded and is expected to worsen
April 12, Japanese atomic energy safe to make decision with the intersection of security personnel and institute, rise to supreme the intersection of grade and 7 from present 5 grades the intersection of Fukushima and first nuclear power station of the intersection of nuclear leakage and grades, this can mean accident of Fukushima and cut Pele's accident of the promise is mentioned in the same breath, " the nuclear accident grade rises to highest " If you can't report to, if you can't submit Japanese cabinet, go on by authorization. This decision comes from the hierarchical table (INES) of the international nuclear energy incident Standard divide,but last dispute INES itself. Because of different from magnitude, earthquake define the level depend on energy intensity that erupt mainly, a high grade is ten times higher. And should not merely consider total amount of leakage and casualties of the nuclear material in nuclear energy incident, consider even more to the blow of living environment, economic and social psychology, it is a very fuzzy appraisal system. 7 grades of INES are divided from the 1st one that begin " Unusual" , " small-scale incident " , " serious incident " , " regional nuclear incident " , " nuclear accident which have the extensive consequence " , " serious accident " The 7th to supreme grade " The great accident " . Their inherent definition, are transferring to social influence from letting out amount of the core constantly. Cut the promise Pele is extremely heavy, not merely has more than 4000 people serious nuclear radiation, and two of city - -The numbers of people are cutting Pripyat of promise Pele and 49400 people and is discarded of 14000. The accident of Fukushima was not cut on nuclear injuries and deaths and the intersection of radiation and crowd the promise Pele is heavy, and overall nuclear the intersection of material and leaking amount only 1/10 of the former at present, that is to say, probably equate from the accident of the nuclear reactor with level of 5 grades of accident of Three Mile Island of U.S.A. at present, but because the accident district is the populous district, it means the environment has already highly worsened to have an area of the medians of 20 kilometers, take shape and strike Japan's economic and social psychology seriously. In addition, consider the aftershock is constant, the letting out amount of the core will also last some time, the nuclear accident has derivative and uncertainty, in this sense, it is that 7 grades are not a mistake to define the level. Relatively, Russian Kyshtym nuclear accident that happened in 1957 was characterized as 6 grades, mainly because the impact on local economy and the society of this accident did not cause striking seriously. So, in a sense, we can " improve this time by 7 grades " Decision regard as about Japan being economic and live socially " More pessimistic " One kind statement,say in other words, " whether regret we tell by you, situation is terrible thoroughly" . Indeed, the losses of Japan's economy exceed expectancy, the losses that the government estimates at the end of March are probably 25,000 billion Japanese yen (294 billion dollars) ,It seems that the loss figure should also continue raising now. In Japanese Central Bank punctuates and annotates in recent regional economic forecasting, specially refer to " difficult to repair in time that it causes bringing up the rear in the industry chain that the infrastructure is destroyed " Question,and last some time. Japanese Government has already allocated many trillions of budgets to clear up the disaster area, build the temporary home and increase the employment opportunity in the disaster area etc. now, but face large-scale capital construction losses, must need to issue the large-scale development plan. If the government does not consider the public debt has already reached the crisis of GDP200%, reach a decision and borrow money on a large scale, it is people and private organization but it is sure not to buy the debt subject under the situation at present, it want Japanese Central Bank meddle in directly,according to Japan law, Central Bank can't " the debt monetization "s direct ,Namely can't buy the treasury bond directly, the middle needs someone to " put up a bridge, receive and distribute " One time. Our judgement is, Japanese Government handles the respect in the nuclear crisis and already commits " sluggish, the resolution has not been strong " Condemn,then at Japan of revitalizing economy behind the calamities,greatly might villous themeda people governments frank by " act speedily and vigorously excessively " . He will not increase taxes on a large scale, though it is regarded as the important work schedule that he will been increasing taxes all the time, thus reduce Japan's dangerous total debt level, but the situation comes here now, the total debt level has already become insignificant, has " chanced it and gone all out to fight " Turn into a major psychology. Which month subsequently of the Japanese seismic sea wave will inevitable to produce" Technical decline " ,In the words of IMF, " economy will drop fast in short term " ,It is believed that this judgement will become the action expectancy of the straight people's government of villous themeda, will expect to issue the large-scale amazing scheme extremely probably in Japanese Government more quickly more than people, the scale of its totality will not be lower than 2,000 billion Japanese yen. Because Japan has been receiving the puzzlement of the deflation all the time, though the intensity is being lightened to some extent these years, so Japanese Central Bank will consider long-term change of CPI, it is estimated, utilize the intersection of scale and shocking " quantize loose policy " soon Japan after coming to the strong shock goes on " The economy like the strong shock is stimulated " . Certainly, by the look of situation revealed at present, Japanese Central Bank has not taken a clear-cut stand yet, language very ambiguous, say " assets buy planning scale expand from first time to 10,000 billion Japanese yen " only . But the trend is better than people, the general trend of events is " host of route " ,Wave just like puppy a short time in policy person, run the last run, should be along " host " finally Direction reach. Japanese Central Bank is final " Quantization loosely " It is extremely probably ultra and anticipated. This mean original the intersection of U.S.A. and Q2 plan almost coda, the intersection of Japan and " quantization loosely " The overbearing tide comes again, the global paper currency system will appear the new round of and unorderedly and fluctuate. We guess, because the country of new developing market begins to " step on the brake " because of inflation ,Control the aggregate demand, in this case it will be " offsetted partly " by the shrink of some external countries that the stimulus of Japan expands the result . The unable enjoyment because of offsetting in this kind of result of Japanese yen " Work well " ,Thus will Japanese yen relative U.S. dollar will appear from the fading of surging upward pattern of 1998 most probably.


|