How greatly does first type H1N1 influenza epidemic situation propagate the risk

How greatly does first type H1N1 influenza epidemic situation propagate the risk
How greatly does first type H1N1 influenza epidemic situation propagate the risk
Staff reporter Zheng dexterous The first type H1N1 virus initiates the new influenza epidemic situation, WHO raises and warns the rank twice, make global influenza warn the rank to increase largely and prevailingly to 5 grades. May 4, the United Nations and the intersection of WHO and officer say, will at once global large to warn the rank to raise to be superfine while being prevailing influenza (6 grades) ,But it is still very possible to change to 6 grades. Then, how greatly on earth does this new influenza propagate the risk greatly and prevailingly? On May 6, undertake to propagate China CDC (Center for Disease Prevention and Control) of the risk assessment duty greatly and prevailingly in influenza Expert panel members, the chief expert's once mere professor of China CDC epidemiology were interviewed by staff reporter. The natural history mystery waits to analyse and explain the once mere professor to think, how large-scaly an epidemic situation initiated of poison will be formed on earth to make a variation newly this time, could know after needing to obtain the true parameter of natural history of this disease. A lot of parameters of the first type H1N1 influenza announced at present, for example incubation period, infecting one, spread speed, harmfulness,etc., influenza in the past of the bases is old it is inferred that the situation prevails, but not came from observation and measurement to the natural history of this epidemic situation. Zeng Guang says, this epidemic situation originated from Mexico, popular against season when summer expires by Northern Hemisphere, it is swift and violent to spread, but the climate is unfavorable to influenza virus and travel after all in summer. This epidemic situation has already propagated the Southern Hemisphere that will be gone to until winter at present. There is climatic condition that suitable virus propagates there, local seasonal influenza will prevail shortly. In future several months, new influenza virus prevails and interweaves with seasonal influenza virus prevailingly together, recombinate? Recently, the epidemic situation of Northern Hemisphere seems to have the tendency to slow down popularly, but the peripheral epidemic situation situation of our country becomes more and more tense. This is that an epidemic situation is developing on earth, is there the more violent one after or the first wave of epidemic situation? All these questions, can't draw a conclusion easily yet. The case fatality rate is the important index judged to severity of an epidemic situation. Think can't the intersection of Israel and case fatality rate of Mexico come on, judge first type the intersection of H1N1 and the intersection of virulence and state only only. So far, this epidemic situation dies of illness the overwhelming majority of case happens in Mexico. Why epidemic situation is introduced in so many to the country relatively " Gentle" ,But do people that Mexico die of illness have many? Is virulence weakened after does the virus goes down to posterity? The same virulence, make with the horizontal level of making a diagnosis rightly to make a diagnosis and give treatment in morning and evening? In general, the case fatality rate of this epidemic situation is not merely lower than all previous influenza to prevail big at present, also lower than the case fatality rate of seasonal influenza. In addition, the high risk that old man, children have disease and die has not reflected. Has not more critical epidemic situation come yet? The human false alarm? A lot of mysteries about natural history of this epidemic situation, need the scientists of various countries to look for the scientific evidence to analyse and explain. It says on May 4, first type H1N1 influenza virus is making a variation that the prediction scheme can't replace the concrete countermeasure WHO, the direction is unable to estimate to make a variation. The once mere professor analyzed, dealt with this epidemic situation, there were many advantages of our country, there were quite a few unfavorable conditions. The favorable respect is, through dealing with SARS, our country has accumulated the experience of preventing and controlling infectious disease effectively, have made and improved the laws and regulations of meeting an urgent need of a series of public health and prevented and controlled the prediction scheme, set up public health to meet an urgent need in the team, know that investigates the ability in on-the-spot epidemiology, monitor the network with the influenza epidemic situation of the straight newspaper and cover the urban and urual areas of whole country, special fast reagent which measures first type H1N1 influenza virus has already researched and developed success. The unfavorable respect is, population of our country is numerous but dense, the size of population is the largest in the world that flow, the antiviral medicine is produced and lagged behind the developed country with the reserve capacity far, if the first type H1N1 influenza epidemic situation is input and spread, perhaps our difficulty of control is bigger than that of the developed country. An epidemic situation can lead to great disaster, how to tackle is a key. Mere professor brief on once, existing influenza prevent and control prediction scheme, can't replace epidemic situation this, prevent and control concrete formulation of countermeasure. At present, we should collect the on-the-spot information of the epidemic situation more carefully, grasp the dynamic change of the on-the-spot epidemic situation in time, make good preparations for should come to the epidemic situation at any timing.


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